football predictions since 1979
FPA RECORDS
Historic Records

ALL TIME WINNERS' BOARD

The All Time Winners' Board is being compiled and will appear soon. This will show all titles and other information, like how long members have been predicting so what their success rate is compared to their time in FPA.

Seven members have achieved 'Classic Status', winning the 6 classic/historic titles of 2 leagues (JPSL, RL) and 4 cups (FAC, JPLC, EC, DBGT), and the years they were achieved:

1997 M.Phillips
2000 M.Grunwell
2006 J.Phillips
2007 G.Grunwell
2009 F.Grunwell
2012 M.Willing
2017 E.Grunwell

We look forward to having some more join this somewhat exclusive club!

Mark Grunwell is the all-time highest title winner with 57 leagues and cups. Mark is also the only person who has won every major top flight title of 4 leagues (JPSL, RL, ESL, MCL) and 4 cups (FAC, JPLC, EC, DBGT). This is known as 'Super Classic Status'

Others chasing Super Classic Status:

7 out of 8
Mike Phillips, Glen Grunwell need the ESL.
Elliott Grunwell and Matt Willing need the MCL.

6 out of 8
Fiona Grunwell needs the ESL & MCL, Daniel Grunwell needs the EC & MCL.


TOP 10 All-time Title Winners

Here are the top 10 all time title winners of combined leagues and cups. Obviously some have been predicting longer and others are no longer predicting (passed away or retired from FPA)

1M.Grunwell57
2M.Phillips34
3F.Grunwell23
4G.Grunwell20
5J.Phillips14
6M.Willing13
7E.Grunwell10
8D.Grunwell8
9B.Roberts-Jones6
10D.Boston5


TOP 10 League Winners

1M.Grunwell32
2M.Phillips21
3G.Grunwell12
4F.Grunwell 7
5J.Phillips 6
6E.Grunwell 5
D.Grunwell5
M.Willing 5
9B.Roberts-Jones 4
The Sun 4


TOP 10 (12) Cup Winners

1M.Grunwell25
2F.Grunwell16
3M.Phillips13
4J.Phillips8
G.Grunwell8
M.Willing8
5E.Grunwell5
6A.Springate4
7D.Springate3
D.Grunwell3
S.Almudaris3
K.Mowad3


This one more for fun and interest, instead of individuals, family winners including husband/wife 'teams'. Obviously there needs to be a minimum of two family members, and a minimum of one title win, to get into this table.

TOP Families

1Grunwell120
2Phillips49
3Springate8
4Wallbank 3
5Williams 1
Sherman 1
Keohane/Slater 1

1: Mark (57), Fiona (23), Glen (20), Elliott (10), Daniel (8), Joseph (2)
2: Mike (34), Joyce (14), Ted (1)
3: Arron (4), Dennis (4)
4: Matt (3), Mark
5: Tony (1), Neil
5: Darren (1), Mike
5: Nina Keohane (1), Rob Slater

Here are all the Professional winners. Though we sometimes do enter professionals into cups to make up the numbers, no Professional has ever won an FPA cup. This table then is only league titles. Premier League titles have priority over the former Division One.

TOP Professionals

1The Sun (UK Newspaper)4
2News of the World (UK Newspaper)2*
3Sunday Express (UK Newspaper)1
3Sunday Mirror (UK Newspaper) 1
3Daily Mail (UK Newspaper) 1
3Mark Lawrenson (UK BBC Commentator) 1
4Poolswinner Gold (Algorithm/Software) 1*

* Division One

TOP 10 Results League Finishing Percentages

There have been over 100 finishing performances achieving the benchmark 50% success rate. Here are the top 10 all-time scores, with the season year. Updated May 2019.

1M.Grunwell59.032016-2017
2M.Phillips58.052013-2014
3M.Grunwell56.931989-1990
4E.Grunwell56.892007-2008
5M.Grunwell56.572018-2019
6M.Phillips56.442007-2008
7M.Grunwell56.042013-2014
8M.Phillips55.892018-2019
9The Sun55.852016-2017
10J.Phillips55.682005-2006


Mark Grunwell's amazing title-winning 56.93% in the 1989-1990 season looked like it would never be beaten or even challenged, however in 2007-2008 Elliott Grunwell almost did it, when he won the Results League title with 56.89%, just 0.04% behind Mark's record. The magical 57% looked like it would never be beaten and Mark's figure stood for nearly a quarter of a century.

Then in 2013-2014, Mike Phillips not only passed this milestone but demolished Mark's 24 year old record, with 58.05%. That looked like a record that might stand for another quarter century, but within three seasons Mark finished with 59.03%, pushing the figure up by almost a whole percent and reclaiming his top spot as the highest all-time Results League finish.

These top 10 are quite impressive and hard to achieve, all at 55.68% or over. Mark Grunwell has four entries in this somewhat exclusive table; Mike Phillips has three. The other amateur entries are Elliott Grunwell and Joyce Phillips with one each. Only one Professional makes the top ten with one entry, The Sun; The Sunday Mail was pushed out of the top ten in 2018-2019.

Complete list of all 50% scores to follow.

All Time/Career Averages
All Time Average is naturally enough based on the number of completed seasons in the top flight (old Division One and current Premier League) Results League. You need two completed seasons to acquire an average.

The problem with the all-time averages method is that for those who have only ever competed in the minimum number of seasons to qualify, they may have an artificially low or high career average.

For example, the 1980s and the early 1990s produced a number of low scoring RL percentage seasons, even for the 'top' predictors, whereas in the 2000s there have been many higher scoring years.

Take as an example, Sami Almudaris who currently has an excellent career average based on five complete seasons from 2016-2017, with 51.28% - in fact, Sami is now number 1 on the all-time career averages of 59 predictors since 1980-1981, both amateur and pro, who have completed more than one season. Members also have to have predicted to within 3 weeks' worth of the end of the season. This adjustment removes all those percentages from members who stopped predicting early in the season or missed too many weeks, giving them an artificially high score.

The earlier years of the FPA, especially the 1980s and 1990s, produced very low Results League percentages, whereas the 2000s, especially the last 5-10 years, has produced much higher percentages - except for these last two seasons affected by the global pandemic.

Compare Sami Almudaris to Mark Grunwell, who has 35 seasons of top flight finishes, and an all-time average of 49.94. But for the same five year period as Sami, Mark''s average is higher at 53.88, because all the low score years from the 1980s-1990s, a disadvantage to long standing member averages, have been removed. It is certainly not an exact science.

Here are all the all-time (formerly called career) averages for amateur and professional predictors who have completed more than one season in the top (Premier) Results League (some members may have spent some of their career time in the former Division One, based on Championship games). Bear in mind the comments as above with the comparison between Sami Almudaris and Mark Grunwell. See all the section below on Four Year Averages.

All Time Averages - percentages and number of completed seasons in brackets (to 2020-2021):

1Sami Almudaris51.28(5)
2Mark Crossley51.14(6)
3Fiona Grunwell50.06(20)
4Khalid Mowad49.96(5)
5Mark Grunwell49.94(35)
6Rob Salter49.35(4)
7Matt Willing49.30(19)
8Sunday Express (Newspaper)49.14(12)
9Moteb Hayas49.05(4)
10Elliott Grunwell49.04(21)
11Mike Phillips48.89(35)
12Sunday Mail (Newspaper)48.70(14)
13Ian Milligan48.68(10)
14Daniel Grunwell48.63(15)
15Danny Thompson48.56(8)
16Mark Lewis48.22(7)
17Rezilta (Online)48.14(3)
18Sunday Mirror (Newspaper)48.12(5)
19Matthew Starling48.02(5)
20Barry Roberts-Jones47.90(11)
21Foot Stats (Online)47.80(7)
22Joseph Grunwell47.74(5)
23Alan Foster47.653(4)
24Glen Grunwell47.645(33)
25Fakhar Khalid47.39(6)
26Daily Mail (Newspaper)47.28(11)
27Joyce Phillips47.12(23)
28Jason Blackford47.01(6)
29The Sun (Newspaper)46.97(35)
30Will Hughes46.29(6)
31Tina Keen46.20(3)
32Predict Z (Online)46.09(6)
33Sunday Times (Newspaper)45.60(16)
34Mark Oliver45.40(3)
35Daily Express (Newspaper)45.25(6)
36Sunday Telegraph (Newspaper)44.883(8)
37Dave Boston44.875(24)
38Daily Mirror (Newspaper)44.58(10)
39Dave Sancto43.952(5)
40Arron Springate43.945(6)
41Khalid Aldhamen43.52(4)
42Rob Slater43.36(3)
43Ted Phillips43.33(3)
44The Telegraph (Newspaper)43.30(7)
45The Sunday People (Newspaper)43.06(9)
46Ken Morgan43.03(19)
47Richard Wellings42.68(6)
48News of the World (Newspaper)42.55(10)
49The Independent (Newspaper)42.33(4)
50The Times (Newspaper)42.30(5)
51Darren Sherman41.38(3)
52Darren Parker40.97(2)
53Paul Burch40.73(4)
54Ian Humphries40.27(4)
55Mike Sherman39.99(5)
56Dennis Springate39.85(10)
57Evening Standard (Newspaper)39.12(4)
58Crossfire (TV)38.98(2)
59Oracle (TV)38.38(5)


Dennis Springate has the lowest all-time career average of the amateurs with 39.85% from 5 seasons. Dennis was on 50% in his comeback season but did not complete the year, else his average would be much higher. The lowest all-time career average for a professional is the Oracle (a former TV teletext-style pundit) with 38.38% from 5 seasons - at 59th, The Oracle is the lowest of all amateurs and professionals obtaining a career average (qualification criteria = two complete seasons).

To improve your all-time average, you obviously need to score a higher percentage in a current season than your overall average listed here.


Updated for 2020-2021
A better way to look at overall predicting performance is to attempt to standardise finishing year percentages (or 'normalise' in scientific terms) and there's more than one way to do this.

The first way to do a more realistic comparison is to take everyone's results percentage for the last number of consecutive years when new members joined.

For example, we had a group of new members join FPA in the 2016-2017 season, but they have obviously only completed four seasons so will only have an average based on just the last four years.

So we go back four seasons for the last influx of new members, since four seasons is the minumum we can average for. If no new members joined in the future seasons, we'd compare averages going back the number of seasons that we can compare. Example: let's say the last new FPA members joined five years ago; we could then run a five year average comparing everybody's last five seasons of averages.

Currently four is the furthest we can go back. As mentioned, the last five to six years have seen exceptionally high percentages compared to those low scoring seasons of the 1980s and 1990s, so this levels the playing field for those who have lower all-time averages as a result of being part of those 'lean', lower score years. The table is smaller since it can only show those who have predicted the last four seasons, but it now looks quite different:

Current Four Year Average (to 2020-2021):
1Daniel Grunwell52.78
2Mike Phillips52.65
3Mark Grunwell52.60
4Mark Crossley52.38
5Fiona Grunwell52.06
6Sami Almudaris50.96
7Matt Willing50.92
8The Sun (Newspaper)50.83
9Glen Grunwell49.99
10Mark Lewis49.97
11Elliott Grunwell49.43
12Rob Salter49.35
13Moteb Hayas49.05
14Foot Stats (Online)48.92
15Khalid Mowad48.90
16Ian Milligan48.81
17Alan Foster47.65
18Jason Blackford47.48
19Matthew Starling47.29
20Will Hughes46.75
21Predict Z (Online)46.22
22Khalid Aldhamen43.52


Now all the long standing members are more accurately compared to those who have predicted only the more recent higher scoring years.


The second method is to take the four best high scores for each member from all their FPA complete seasons, and compare those with the those who have only completed four years - since apart from the 2020-2021 season, where two new members joined (Tope Bammeke and Misha Konfektov), all current members have predicted four seasons or more. Note that some former member members will show in this table, if they predicted a minimum four seasons

Best Four Seasons Averaged (to 2017-2018): This is due to be updated for 2020-2021
1Mark Grunwell57.98
2Mike Phillips57.25
3Elliott Grunwell56.23
4Joyce Phillips55.40
5Glen Grunwell55.21
6The Sun (Newspaper)54.81
7Fiona Grunwell54.63
8Sunday Mail (Newspaper)54.29
9Matt Willing54.05
10Sunday Express (Newspaper)52.78
11Ian Milligan52.64
12Khalid Mowad52.50
13Danny Thompson52.32
14Sunday Times (Newspaper)52.28
15Will Hughes51.21
16Daniel Grunwell51.14
17Joseph Grunwell50.96
17Sunday Mirror (Newspaper)50.96
19Sami Almudaris50.73
20Dave Boston50.72
21Mark Crossley50.71
22Daily Mail (Newspaper)50.69
23Barry Roberts-Jones50.66
24Ken Morgan50.34
25Rezilta (Online)49.84
26Foot Stats (Online)49.28
27Fakhar Khalid49.24
28Dave Sancto48.52
29Predict Z (Online)48.31
30Daily Express (Newspaper)48.30
31Sunday Telegraph (Newspaper)47.70
32Daily Mirror (Newspaper)47.56
33Tina Keen47.42
34Matthew Starling47.35
35Arron Springate47.03
36The Telegraph (Newspaper)47.00
37News of the World (Newspaper)46.60
38Jason Blackford46.50
39Ted Phillips46.33
40Sunday People (Newspaper)46.31
41Mark Oliver46.14
42The Times (Newspaper)45.59
43Richard Wellings44.32
44The Independent (Newspaper)43.90
45Dennis Springate43.16
46Mike Sherman42.90
47Ian Humphries42.41
48Vic Hatherley42.29
49Darren Sherman42.17
50Paul Burch41.79
51Oracle (TV)41.77
52Darren Parker40.97
53Evening Standard (Newspaper)40.70
53Crossfire (TV)39.98


A familiar pattern begins to emerge with many of the same names appearing in the top 10 of the last two tables which more accurately reflects overall performance, rather than merely two good seasons of predicting.

Of course, over time, given enough seasons for the newer members, their averages should equalise, since not every season will be a high scoring (say 50% plus) one.

These latter tables also give a chance for former members with a good predictions history (title winners or regular high placings) such as Joyce Phillips, Barry Roberts-Jones and so on, to be better represented.

As mentioned above, recent seasons, certainly since the 2000s, have been 'easier' to achieve a higher season's score, evidenced by all the 50%+ years. This puts good predictors no longer with us (either left the FPA or passed away) at a disadvantage as they can obviously never improve their average; likewise, current members who predicted through many 'lean' seasons of the 1980s and 1990s need a better way to be compared with more recent members to the FPA who have had two or more good years.

This means there are past predictors who were very good at it (such as Barry Roberts-Jones and Joyce Phillips) still come out poorly in any comparison with today, even using two year averages.

The best way to compare then is not in absolute values but in relative ones. A better indicator of how good someone's RL season was is to work out the average for the Results League for each table of the last day of each season. Then work out how many % above the average the winner was. We can get an overall average of a member's average above or below the background average. This would give us a 'standardized' way to compare past and present member performances regardless of whether it was a higher or lower scoring season. These stats will appear here soon.





HISTORIC RECORDS

Here are all the competitions for each season:
(currently we only have a sample from a few years, but over time all the seasons' records will be added here)








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